Firstly, before we get to the Biden-friendly or Trump-friendly scenarios: Assume this is one of those happy years in which there is no structural flaw in the polls — that is, Biden wins 8 points around the world. In that situation, Biden would take the Electoral College, even if certain states might have a lack of polls. For Biden, bringing back three of the so-called “Blue Wall” states that Hillary Clinton has lost: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Coupled with the states Clinton won in 2016, Biden would have up to 278 votes, more than the 270 required. Pennsylvania is the lowest in the “Blue Wall” category, but even if Biden fell that — doubtful if the polls were on the right track overall — he’d have plenty of other options as he’s already slightly ahead of us in our final forecast in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, and barely behind Trump in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa.
What if Biden preferred a 3-point polling error? Then he’d be a favorite in all the above-mentioned states. Coupled with Maine and Nebraska ‘s 2nd Congressional Districts, where he was already favored, he would win 413 seats. Other traditionally extremely red states could also come into play for Biden, with Montana being the most likely pick, following South Carolina, Alaska, and Missouri.
This condition would also create an 11-point popular vote advantage for Biden, the largest candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the biggest winning margin since Franklin Delano Roosevelt versus Herbert Hoover in 1932.
After a 3-point error in Trump’s direction — more or less what happened in 2016—the rivalry will become efficient. Biden will cling on, but with 279 ballots, he would be the absolute favorite in states (and congressional districts). In Pennsylvania, the turning-point territory, 1.7 percentage points are expected to prevail — not above the recount mark, but in a close fight.
For Biden, this is not the end of the world. Compared to Clinton, the additional cushion he’s had helps a lot; it means that with a 2016 polling error, he’d recover a couple barely missed states. Biden recently surveyed a lot, particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, and has big leads there.
Yet, this could not have been the kind of outcome the Democrats expected. Since in this case, Biden is expected to depend on Pennsylvania — a state that is expected to require some time to count the vote — the result may take longer to call. In the other hand, it may build a very bad map for the Democrats’ Senate ambitions, as Biden would be a slim loser in a number of states with critical Senate elections like Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa.
Thus, while Biden is not a normal-sized polling error away from defeat, he is a normal-sized polling error away from a difficult win that does not come with parliamentary scrutiny.
Yet, as much as we sounded a alarm message, Democrats had the potential to be content where they ended up. Sure, Biden could be in a marginally better position with a larger polling line in Pennsylvania or Arizona, where his numbers fell down a little. However, if we had told our Democratic readers six months ago that Biden would be led by 8 points nationally for election morning ahead, 8 points in Wisconsin and Michigan, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 to 3 points in Florida and Arizona, and even a little ahead in Georgia, and with a reasonably decent chance of winning Texas, we think they’d be pretty pleased.
Even worth remembering today’s global background circumstances. Four years ago, Trump barely won the presidency over an unpopular Clinton opponent. In 2016, 18 percent of the voters in the national exit poll didn’t like Trump and Clinton and gave Trump 17 points. If split evenly, Clinton could have won the Electoral College. However, plenty of those voters favor Biden who has even better scores than either Clinton or Trump.
Meanwhile, the election came at a period when a 2:1 majority of voters are dissatisfied with the nation’s government following the COVID-19 pandemic that killed 233,000 Americans — and has worsened in recent weeks — along with high (although rising) unemployment, a summer of racial protests, and Trump’s continued decline and the democratic norms of his administration. Trump’s approval rating stood in negative territories for virtually his whole administration. Trump’s voting record isn’t unblemished: Democrats secured a plurality support for the US. House almost 9 points in 2018, exactly the same margin Trump currently has in nationwide surveys, in an election where surveys and forecasts were accurate.
In other words , given all that’s happening in the country — and Biden’s popularity relative to Clinton — it shouldn’t be that complicated to expect a tiny proportion of voters switching from Trump to Biden. There are more backers of Trump-to-Biden than the Clinton-to-Trump electorate. The lion’s share of people who voted for Gary Johnson or another candidate four years ago said they were planning to vote for Biden.
Trump could fix this with a disproportionate Republican majority. But although Republican attendance may be very high, Democratic turnout would almost certainly be too high, as demonstrated by, among other things: the equal or higher number of enthusiasts in the polls; their very high amount of early and absentee voting; and their increased capacity to raise funds throughout the time.
Again, it’s not to doubt that Trump, too, would be his voters. Our model estimates total race participation at 158 million, with an 80th percentile ranging from 147 million to 168 million. But if the bulk of persuasive backers and independents turn to the other side, you need the results to be good and the other group to be weak to get a lot of shots, and Trump’s latter case seems impossible.
Also, 10 percent of the chances emerge, there’s never been an election like this one, and there’s no moment everybody should take for granted. We believe you to keep track of our coverage as long as you determine who won.
Closing voting hours
First voting closes at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Save Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Vermont and Virginia. Night’s last vote would end at 1 a.m. ET’s Alaska.
Georgia is the first country to close the polls at 7 p.m., while followed by a flurry of other critical nations.
North Carolina and Ohio pollls near 7:30 p.m.
Florida, Maine, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania closed at 8 p.m.
Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Texas, near the polling at 9 p.m.
Iowa and Nevada closed at 10 p.m.
Markets gather across Asia and Europe, as observers expect Democrats to win and Bank of England to stimulate
Share prices in the City were on target for their highest regular increase in two months, with investors anticipating a victory for Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election in a massive new stimulus package.
London ‘s biggest stock-market index – the FTSE 100 – rose more than 100 points in early trading when last week’s dark environment disappeared.
The share price rally has started overnight in the Asia-Pacific area and has moved to Europe, where all big stock exchanges have won. By mid-morning, London’s FTSE had risen by more than 100 points, selling at its peak level in a fortnight.
Given Thursday’s imminent start of a fresh national lockout in England, financial markets infer that Biden will beat Donald Trump as part of the presidency’s egalitarian, clean sweep and both congress chamber.
The City also expects the Bank of England to help the operation by announcing on Thursday that its quantitative easing policy would produce at least £100bn of fresh money.
Tougher lock-down policies announced by a number of European economies, coupled with record daily U.S. outbreaks, ensured that since March, October has sparked the sharpest monthly share prices.
But among the polls showing a tight presidential race in many of the big swing states, traders were anticipating Biden’s solid victory.