Donald Trump, both nationwide and in crucial states, is doing considerably lower than he was at this stage in 2016. In the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, his odds of winning are smaller than they were last time. But what does it cost to win for Trump?
A touch of a stretch is the most possible winning situation for the president, but not that difficult. In most swing states, Trump wants around a 3-point polling mistake or a late reversal of votes in his favour. The new ruling of the Supreme Court seems like a victory for voting rights. It’s just a menace.
In Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia, Trump has modest polling leads. If those states flip to Trump, but Biden wins polls elsewhere that see him more, the chart looks like this. To retain the White House, Trump wants to secure 11 electoral votes from areas where Biden’s lead is larger.
To gain all the electoral votes he wants, he still needs to perform well in tight elections in Texas and Ohio. If Biden takes every state where he has a 1 to 3 point advantage, Trump has a strong probability of winning the presidency.
In these counties, Pennsylvania is the nearest and has the most electoral votes. If Trump were to lose Pennsylvania, his route to success will be more complicated. Nevada is voting about as close as Pennsylvania, but with just six electoral votes at play, it’s a tiny territory.
In several states in 2016, polling underestimated Trump’s lead, but the misses in the Upper Midwest were higher than normal. If no one receives more than 269 electoral votes in each of the five provinces, the result would be tied at 269-269.
Trump has indicated that he wants to declare an election night win and then reject postal ballots as fake. This will be the road for Trump to a legitimate win. Yet legally, a president is named by the Electoral College. State legislators will appoint electors in some main states, which are governed by Republicans.
In an effort to essentially snatch the election from Biden, will GOP legislators go along with Trump’s effort to delete millions of legally cast postal votes? It’s improbable, but it’s not unthinkable.
Biden is projected to perform their counts reasonably rapidly in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia.
If this ugly plan is to be followed by Trump, it might only truly succeed if Biden in all those states were to fall short.
This is a summary of the Vox Piece written by